Can Anish Giri Finally Win the Candidates? Why 2026 Could Be His Year

After two near-misses and years in the wilderness, the Dutch super-GM has qualified for his third Candidates Tournament. This time feels different. Here's why.

The Question That Started It All

September 2025. Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Post-tournament interview after winning the Grand Swiss.

Anish Giri, fresh off securing his spot in the 2026 Candidates Tournament, was asked about his World Championship ambitions.

His response was simple, direct, and loaded with intent:

"Gukesh can become World Champion... Why can't I become World Champion?"

It's a fair question.

Gukesh Dommaraju became World Champion at 18. Giri is 31, has been elite for over a decade, and has come agonizingly close before.

So why not?

After two previous Candidates appearances that ended in heartbreak, after 18 months outside the Top 5, after years of "almost but not quite", Anish Giri is heading to Cyprus in March 2026 with a genuine shot at becoming World Champion.

This time feels different.

Let's explore why.

The History: Two Tries, Two Heartbreaks

Candidates 2016: The 14-Draw Tournament

Giri's first Candidates appearance in Moscow.

Final result: 5th place with 7/14 (4 wins, 14 draws, 0 losses)

Yes, you read that right: 14 draws in 14 games.

It sounds passive. It sounds boring. But the games themselves were anything but.

Giri played sharp, double-edged positions that could have gone either way. He just couldn't convert the advantages he created. The chess was fighting; the results were frustrating.

At 22 years old, he was the youngest player in the tournament. The experience, while disappointing, was valuable.

But the "14 draws" label stuck. Unfairly, many dismissed him as too cautious, too risk-averse, too willing to accept draws.

Candidates 2020/21: So Close to Glory

The pandemic-suspended Candidates. Giri entered with more experience, better preparation, sharper teeth.

At the halfway point: 3.5/7, tied for third, just one point behind the leaders.

By Round 12: 7.5/12, still in contention for the win.

This was different. This was Giri showing real championship potential.

He pushed Ian Nepomniachtchi — the eventual winner — harder than anyone. He was the closest challenger, the player Nepo feared most.

But close wasn't enough.

Final result: 2nd place with 8/14

Runner-up. The silver medal. The "what if?"

For a second time, Giri came to the Candidates with real chances and left without the ultimate prize.

The Wilderness: 18 Months Outside Top 5

After the 2020/21 Candidates, something shifted.

Giri's rating dipped. Not dramatically, he's never been outside the Top 20, but enough to drop out of the elite Top 5 club.

For 18 months, from early 2024 through mid-2025, Giri was knocking on the door but not quite breaking through.

Still winning tournaments. Still beating elite players. But not quite at the super-elite level required for Top 5 status.

Then came 2025.

The Comeback: 2025 Tournament Victories

Before his Grand Swiss breakthrough, Giri had already been building momentum:

✅ OGD Rapid 2025 - Victory

✅ 8th Sharjah Masters 2025 - Victory

✅ 6th Saaremaa Chess Festival Rapid and Blitz 2025 - Victory

These weren't just wins. These were statements.

Giri was playing sharp, confident, winning chess. The form was returning.

But he needed something bigger to prove he belonged back in the conversation.

The Breakthrough: Grand Swiss 2025

The Setup

September 2025. Samarkand, Uzbekistan. FIDE Grand Swiss Tournament.

206 players. 11 rounds. Top two finishers qualify for Candidates 2026.

Giri entered as the 7th seed. Respectable, but not the favorite. Players like Praggnanandhaa, Arjun Erigaisi, and Alireza Firouzja were expected to dominate.

The Reality

Giri was never the outright leader until it mattered.

He shared leads with bad tiebreaks. He was always lurking, always dangerous, never quite in control.

Then came the final round.

The Decisive Moment

Round 11: Anish Giri vs. Hans Niemann

Everything on the line. Win, and Giri would be clear champion and qualified for the Candidates. Draw or lose, and chaos.

Giri delivered.

Final score: 8/11 (undefeated)

Performance rating: 2838

Result: Clear first place, half a point ahead of the field

He hadn't just qualified for the Candidates. He had won convincingly, performing at near-2850 level.

His Reaction

"It was like a fairy tale. I was only one of the people. I was never a favorite, I was never leading, only sharing the lead with a bad tiebreak... I've been working towards that, I've been dreaming about it for so long."

"To say that I'm shocked that it happened would be an overstatement, but I'm extremely happy about it!"

The Return: Back in Top 5

November 2025. FIDE rating list.

Anish Giri: 2769 - World #5

After 18 months outside the elite club, he's back.

The rating gains came from strong performances at the European Team Championship in Batumi and the European Club Cup in Rhodes.

1. Magnus Carlsen
2. Hikaru Nakamura
3. Fabiano Caruana
4. Vincent Keymer
5. Anish Giri 🇳🇱 (2769)

The Setback: World Cup Reality Check

November 2025. FIDE World Cup, Goa, India.

Just weeks after his triumphant Grand Swiss victory, Giri faced a harsh reminder: in knockout chess, anyone can lose on any day.

German GM Alexander Donchenko (rated 2641) eliminated Giri in Round 2. Material was equal, but White's pieces surrounded Giri's king, and in time trouble with less than five minutes to reach move 40, the Dutch GM couldn't find the defensive resources.

Donchenko calculated the critical sequence with composure: 37.f6! Nxf6 38.Bxf6 Qe6, and after 39.Ne4!, Giri faced unavoidable disaster. A few desperate checks later, he resigned.

Does This Change His Candidates Prospects?

Not really. Here's why:

The Format Difference

The World Cup is knockout format, two classical games, then rapid/blitz tiebreaks if needed. One bad day, one time-trouble mistake, and you're out. Rating and form don't matter if you have one off-game.

The Candidates is a 14-game double round-robin. Consistency over two weeks matters more than avoiding a single upset. You can lose a game and still win the tournament. You can have an off-day and recover.

It Wasn't a Must-Win Event

More importantly: Giri was already qualified for the Candidates through his Grand Swiss win.

The World Cup was a preparation tournament, not a qualification event. He was testing openings, getting games under his belt, facing different opponents. The pressure was off, which ironically sometimes leads to looser play.

World Champion Gukesh Dommaraju and super-GM Nodirbek Abdusattorov were also eliminated early. Knockout tournaments are brutal and volatile.

What It Actually Shows

If anything, the loss demonstrated that Giri is human, that he can have bad days like everyone else.

But championship contenders are judged on their best performances over time, not isolated upsets.

Giri's Grand Swiss victory, 2838 performance, undefeated, under maximum pressure, tells us far more about his Candidates prospects than a knockout loss in Round 2.

Did it sting? Absolutely. Would Giri have preferred to advance? Of course.

But if you're going to judge his chances in Cyprus, judge them on his 2838 performance when everything was on the line, not on a single knockout game where nothing was.

If anything, the World Cup elimination might provide extra motivation heading into Cyprus. Nobody likes losing. Champions use setbacks as fuel.

Why 2026 is Different

1. Experience

At 31, Giri has competed in two previous Candidates. He knows what to expect:

1. The pressure of 14-game double round-robin
2. The mental toll of must-win situations
3. The preparation battles against top-level opponents
4. The endurance required

In 2016, he was 22 and learning. In 2020/21, he was 26 and competitive. In 2026, he'll be 31 and seasoned.

Experience matters in the Candidates. Ask Fabiano Caruana, who needed multiple appearances before reaching the World Championship match. Ask Ian Nepomniachtchi, who finished runner-up twice before winning.

Giri has paid his dues. He knows what works and what doesn't.

2. Better Understanding of Preparation

Giri himself acknowledged this after winning the Grand Swiss: "I now have a better idea of what to do than in 2020/21, when AlphaZero and Leela Chess Zero had overturned our understanding of chess and everything was still in flux."

The chess engine revolution disrupted traditional preparation. Opening theory exploded. Established principles were questioned. Strong players were scrambling to integrate new ideas.

Now, five years later, the dust has settled. Giri knows how to integrate engine analysis, how to prepare practical positions, how to balance theory with over-the-board creativity.

He's not figuring it out as he goes. He has a roadmap.

3. Peak Form

2838 performance at Grand Swiss

2769 current rating (back in Top 5)

Multiple tournament victories in 2025

This isn't a player sneaking into the Candidates on a technicality. This is a player in peak form, playing the best chess of his career.

The Grand Swiss wasn't a fluke. The 2838 performance wasn't luck. It was the result of hard work, smart preparation, and confidence.

4. The Tata Steel 2023 Breakthrough

At the 2023 Tata Steel Chess Tournament, Giri achieved something significant: he beat Magnus Carlsen in classical chess for the first time in 12 years.

He also defeated Ding Liren (who would become World Champion later that year) and won the tournament by defeating Richárd Rapport in the last round.

This victory made Giri the fourth Dutch player since 1968 to win Tata Steel, joining Gennadi Sosonko, Jan Timman, and Jorden van Foreest.

Why does this matter for the Candidates?

Because it showed Giri can beat the absolute best when it matters. Twelve years of trying to beat Carlsen in classical, and he finally did it. Then he went on to win the tournament.

That's the kind of breakthrough that changes a player's psychology. It removes doubt. It proves you belong.

5. The Hunger

"Gukesh can become World Champion... Why can't I become World Champion?"

That quote reveals everything.

Giri isn't just happy to be at the Candidates. He isn't satisfied with "good showing" or "respectable finish."

He wants to win. He believes he can win.

And belief matters.

In 2016, he was cautious, playing not to lose. In 2020/21, he was competitive but perhaps not quite believing it was his time.

In 2026? He's 31, running out of chances, and asking the question out loud: Why can't I?

Hunger is dangerous. Especially when combined with experience, preparation, and peak form.

The Competition: Who He Faces in Cyprus

Currently Qualified (as of November 2025):

🇳🇱 Anish Giri (Grand Swiss winner)

🇩🇪 Matthias Bluebaum (Grand Swiss runner-up)

🇺🇸 Fabiano Caruana (2024 FIDE Circuit winner)

🇺🇸 Hikaru Nakamura (Rating spot)

Still to be decided:

1. Top 3 from FIDE World Cup 2025 (currently ongoing in Goa)
2. FIDE Circuit 2025 winner

The Likely Field:

Expect a mix of:

1. Established super-GMs (Caruana, Nakamura, Giri)
2. Young Indian prodigies (likely from World Cup)
3. Rising stars (Bluebaum, potential Circuit winner)

Giri's Advantages:

vs. Younger Players (Bluebaum, potential World Cup qualifiers):

1. More experience in this format
2. Better preparation depth
3. Psychological edge from two previous Candidates

vs. Peers (Caruana, Nakamura):

1. Knows their styles intimately
2. Has beaten both multiple times
3. Playing at career-best form

vs. Everyone:

1. Home continent advantage (Cyprus is Europe)
2. Peak rating and confidence
3. Momentum from Grand Swiss dominance

What He Needs to Do Differently

2016 Mistake: Too Cautious

14 draws. Safe but insufficient.

2026 Solution: Play for wins when positions warrant it. The 2838 Grand Swiss performance showed he can win against elite opposition when he goes for it.

2020/21 Mistake: Close But Not Clinical

Runner-up. Pushed Nepomniachtchi hard but couldn't quite overtake him.

2026 Solution: Convert advantages more ruthlessly. His calculation training and preparation improvements should help here.

The Balancing Act

Giri needs to find the sweet spot:

1. Aggressive enough to win crucial games
2. Solid enough to avoid disasters
3. Flexible enough to adapt to different opponents

His playing style — sharp tactics flowing naturally from sound positions — is actually perfect for this balance.

The Betting Odds (Hypothetical)

If we were ranking Candidates favorites today:

Tier 1 (Title Contenders):

1. Fabiano Caruana (most experienced, finished 2nd in World Championship 2018)
2. Hikaru Nakamura (peak form, though Candidates debut)

Tier 2 (Dangerous Challengers):

1. Anish Giri (third time, peak form, experienced)
2. Top World Cup qualifiers (TBD - likely strong)

Tier 3 (Dark Horses):

1. Matthias Bluebaum (first Candidates, lower-rated)
2. FIDE Circuit winner (TBD)

Giri is firmly in the "dangerous challenger" tier — not the favorite, but absolutely capable of winning on his best day.

And that's exactly where he wants to be: dangerous, experienced, and underestimated.

The Psychological Edge

There's something powerful about being the player who's been there before and knows what went wrong.

Caruana has been to a World Championship match. He knows what it takes.

Nakamura has never been to a Candidates. Unknown how he'll handle the pressure.

Giri? He's been twice. He knows the format, the pressure, the grind. He knows his mistakes.

That experience is invaluable.

He won't be overwhelmed by the occasion. He won't be surprised by the intensity. He won't make first-time-at-Candidates errors.

He'll just need to execute the plan.

The Case For Giri Winning

Let's make the positive argument:

✅ Experience - Third Candidates appearance, knows the format

✅ Form - 2838 Grand Swiss performance, back in Top 5

✅ Preparation - Better understanding of modern chess than 2020/21

✅ Victories - Multiple 2025 tournament wins show consistency

✅ Belief - "Why can't I?" mentality shows psychological readiness

✅ Track record - Beat Carlsen, Ding Liren, Nepomniachtchi, others

✅ Playing style - Positional with sharp tactics = perfect for Candidates

✅ Age - 31 is prime years for chess, experience + energy

Add it up, and you have a genuine contender.

The Case Against Giri Winning

Let's be honest about the challenges:

❌ History - Two previous failures, including runner-up finish

❌ Competition - Caruana and Nakamura are both exceptional

❌ Conversion - Historically struggled to convert advantages

❌ 14-draw reputation - Psychological baggage from 2016

❌ Recent stumble - World Cup elimination shows vulnerability

❌ Pressure - Third chance might feel like "last chance"

❌ Rating - 2769 is strong but others might be higher

These are real obstacles. But none are insurmountable.

The Venue: Cap St Georges, Cyprus

March 28 - April 16, 2026.

The 2026 Candidates Tournament will be held at the luxury Cap St Georges Hotel & Resort near Paphos, Cyprus.

Format:

1. 8 players
2. Double round-robin (14 games)
3. Classical time control (120 min/40 moves + 30 min + 30 sec increment from move 41)
4. No draws before move 40 allowed

Prize fund: Minimum €1,000,000

Winner: Challenges Gukesh Dommaraju for the World Championship in late 2026

The Realistic Assessment

Can Anish Giri win the 2026 Candidates Tournament?

Yes.

Is he the favorite?

Probably not. Caruana's experience and Nakamura's peak form make them slight favorites on paper.

But does he have a real, genuine shot at winning?

Absolutely.

Here's the thing about Candidates tournaments: they're won by the player who performs best over 14 games in two weeks. Not the player with the highest rating going in. Not the player with the best career record. Not even necessarily the favorite.

They're won by the player who:

1. Converts their advantages
2. Defends their worse positions
3. Handles the pressure
4. Makes fewer mistakes
5. Shows up every single day

And Giri, with his experience, his preparation, his peak form, and his newfound belief, has all the tools to do exactly that.

The Answer

"Gukesh can become World Champion... Why can't I become World Champion?"

Why can't he?

After two heartbreaks, 18 months in the wilderness, and years of "almost," Anish Giri has one more shot.

He's 31 years old. Back in the Top 5. Playing the best chess of his career. More experienced. Better prepared. Genuinely believing.

Can he finally win the Candidates?

After analyzing his form, his preparation, his trajectory, and his competition, the answer is clear:

Yes, he can.

Whether he will? We'll find out in Cyprus.

March 28, 2026. The chess world will be watching.

And Anish Giri will be ready.

Cyprus 2026. The Candidates Tournament That Could Change Everything.

Stay tuned to ChessTV.com for complete coverage of Anish Giri's quest and all Candidates 2026 action.

🇳🇱 ♟️ 🏆

More to explore:

1. Hans Niemann Eliminated in Round 2 of the FIDE World Cup 2025
2. Wesley So Resigns in a Dead Draw: A Shocking Turn in Round 2
3. Why the World Cup Feels Like the Most Democratic Event in Chess